Originally dated to 7/10/11
It is being proposed to cap expenditures at 18% of GDP, and it is now 24-25%. Tax revenue is 15% of GDP.
The problem is government spending as a percentage of GDP is counter-cyclical.
As GDP declines becasue of business contraction domestically and as business expands outside the US our unemployment increases.
Demands on government increases when more people need financial help for food, shelter, and medical care because of systemic unemployment.
It is estimated that there are 15 to 25 million people unemployed or underemployed, and there are 2.8 million jobs currently available in the entire United States. Therefore, if every job was filled immediately, we will have 12-22 million people with nothing to do.
If transfer payments(social security, unemployment, general relief, food stamps, etc.) are cut, it only reduces aggregate demand within the US domestic economy that is 70% consumer driven.
Spending being tied by statute to a percentage of a number as dubious as GDP is insane.
The last statistic I heard was world GDP in 2010 was $63 trillion and the US was less $15 trillion.
Then, according to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair, Gary Gensler former, CFTC Chair Brooksley Born, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Mary Schapiro and more, that for every dollar of US GDP we have over $20 in derivitive assests with a worldwide market value of over $600 trillion dollars.
Prior to the Christmas recess last December, CFTC Chair Gensler said the US market for derivitives was $30 trillion through the exchange and $300 trillion outside the exchange.
How are these numbers possible with world GDP at $63 trillion and the US at less than $15 trillion?
It is said, that every American Man, woman and child owes $47 thousand on the US debt of $14.3 trillion.
Every man, woman and child in the US is subsidizing this derivitives market by tax-payer bailouts for the entities that created this market at $1 million per person, and $2 million if the world-wide market is considered, as these assests are valued in US dollars.
For the subsidy of this unregulated enterprise of over $1 million dollars per American citizen, we receive zero! Nada! Null-set!
A 1 % tax, charge, fee, or whatever it could be called, to keep this uncapitalized casino going in the so-called “Shadow Banking” industry would virtually pay for the entire federal budget of $3.7 trillion with no income tax on anyone.
2% would pay off the debt providing over $6 trllion dollars to the government.
Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program(SIGTARP) Neil Barofsky, who resigned at the end of March, said in testimony before Congress that the total amount of credit lines opened up to the largest banks, including loan guarantees by the Treasury Department, the FDIC and the Federal Reserve is $23,7 trillion.
That is over 10 times tax revenue to the Federal government, said to be $2.2-2.3 trillion. These numbers seem hallucinagenic but were confirmed to me by officals at the Federal Reserve and SIGTARP offices, as well as the testimony I heard.
The financial industry is operating in another economy that is 10 times the size of the economy of real goods and services.
SEC Chair Mary Schapiro testified that it will take approximately 4 years, without having their budget cut as it was by the Bush administration since 2005, to get the computer hardware and staff to track all of these trades as well as ETF’s on the over 100 exchanges around the world.
The last year for which I heard a statistic was 2008 from Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone Magazine, that there were $1.8 quadrillion in trades on Wall Street in a year, without a fraction of a cent of a transaction fee.
If this country and our government is actually serious about addressing unfunded obligations of $100 trillion, you have to go where it is, not extracting taxes from an economy that is only assessed at $15 trillion and cutting heating oil subsidy to SSI recipients in New England.
There is only one way to pay off debt and make needed investments and that is for the government to have more revenue.
Apparently these quadrillions of dollars of activity is not considered a “Good” or a “Service” because they are obviously not being counted in GDP. Yet, they exist untaxed and unregulated.
Taxing and regulating financial transactions is the “Long-term plan” to address our fiscal problems.
It would require a very low rate of tax because the market is so large, and eliminate the need for our our convoluted income tax system.
No write-offs, subsidies, or the other $1.1 trillion in tax expenditures but, if you want them you could afford it to incentivise behavior.
More jobs must be created in the US to rebuild our aging infrastructure and to increase aggregate demand to increase the need for more service jobs, as well as increasing efficiency and competitiveness of the economy.
Supply side economics has been the policy of this country for the better part of the last 30 years.
GDP is the highest it has ever been, and if supply side did trickle down, every American would be making the most money they have ever made and have the highest standard of living we have ever known. Not the Case.
Since I wrote this, on August 15th French president Nicholas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met to address the financial problems in the EU and agreed to a financial transaction tax and said they were going to bring it up and the next G-20 summit in November. Conceptually it was also agreed to in the European Union Parliament it is still not part of discourse in the US. We are being told everything is on the table. Obviously it is not.